How many people will come to my gig?
New Hampshire has a spread out music scene. The closest you can get to a city scene is in one of the larger towns of Concord, Nashua, Manchester, or Portsmouth.
Concord has a population of 42,000.
Nashua has a popultaion of around 87,000.
Manchester has a population of around 110,000.
Portsmouth has a population of around 20,000.* I include Portsmouth because it is a tourist stop in the summer, where people go to sit on a very rocky beach on the little sliver of coast that New Hampshire has.
If you recall my previous population statistics of new hampshire , you'll find that 23% are under 18. If you say a similar amount is between 18 and 36 (your primary market for major genres), then you come up with this kind of fan base:
Concord: 9,660 people (of all musical interests who might have money and transportation) served by at least 7 venues.
Nashua: 20,010 people served by at least 17 venues.
Manchester: 25,300 people served by at least 33 venues.
Portsmouth: 4,600 people served by at least 8 venues, and probably more down by the beach.
There's also a mountain scene, but I am not covering it here because the locations are far apart, generally separated by ... you guessed it ... mountains.
Now, even if you have an established fan base, these next numbers will tell you why you shouldn't play too often in a single town. Let's take those numbers above and do some more math.
I assume that 3 bands can play at a venue in a week (for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday).
I assume that a person will go out once a week to a venue, and that 25% will not go out at all and only 25% will go to a venue on any given week. I also assume that a person will not go to the same venue twice. This is optimistic. From these assumptions, this is what happens:
In Concord, 21 bands will be playing somewhere over the course of a week.
Up to 2415 people will go out to see them, with 115 people going to a given gig.
In Nashua, 51 bands will be playing somewhere over the course of a week.
Up to 5003 people will go out to see them, with 98 people going to a given gig.
In Manchester, 91 bands will be playing somewhere over the course of a week.
Up to 6325 people will go out to see them, with an average of 64 people going to a given gig.
In Portsmouth, 24 bands will be playing somewhere over the course of a week.
Up to 1150 people *not* from out of town will go out to see them, with an average of 48 people going to a given gig. I don't have the figures for the summer crowds, so I can't tell you much about the visitor scene.
Now, the smart venue owners of Manchester have a problem. They need at least 100 people to go to their venues to make it worth it. But the local population only supports an average of 64 people per venue. There are too many venues! They can't make money doing that. So what do they do? They pass the cost on to the band and limit the number of times the band can play in town. Or they don't pay you at all. This has several implications:
- Some venues attract few people.
- Some venues don't pay, obviously.
- You need to have an established fan base you can call on before booking a gig.
- You cannot play the same gig week after week and expect a higher than average turnout. The magic wears off.
- A mailing list is key.
